EDGE stats behind Draisaitl's elite goal-scoring for Oilers

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the underlying metrics behind Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl’s elite goal-scoring in the regular season and Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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While Connor McDavid has won the Hart Trophy three times, Art Ross Trophy five times, Maurice Richard Trophy once and is the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Leon Draisaitl’s offensive accolades continue to be overshadowed by his generational teammate.

Draisaitl scored his record-setting fourth overtime goal this postseason, the 100th overtime game in Stanley Cup Final history, against the Florida Panthers in Game 4 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final on Thursday. The best-of-7 series is tied 2-2 after the Oilers became the seventh team in NHL history to come back from three goals down to win a game in the Stanley Cup Final. Draisaitl, who had never scored a playoff overtime goal entering the 2025 postseason, is the third player in NHL history to score multiple overtime goals in the same Stanley Cup Final, joining Don Raleigh (1950 with New York Rangers in Game 4 & 5) and John LeClair (1993 with Montreal Canadiens in Game 3 & 4).

The 29-year-old Draisaitl is coming off his first Maurice Richard Trophy as the NHL’s goal leader (52) this regular season and also won both the Art Ross and Hart trophies in 2020. Although Draisaitl was held without a goal (had three assists) in seven games against the Panthers during the 2024 Cup Final, his strong advanced stats supported his bounce-back effort through four games of the series rematch.

Since 2018-19, Draisaitl ranks second in the NHL in regular-season goals (324 goals in 521 games) behind Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs (327 in 485 games) and second in goals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (46 in 81 games) behind Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche (50 in 82). Among active NHL players, Draisaitl ranks second in career playoff points per game (1.49; 140 in 94 games) behind only McDavid (1.59; 149 in 94 games).

He’s also by far the highest-scoring Germany-born NHL player of all-time (956 points in 790 games; 399 goals). Here are three underlying numbers behind Draisaitl’s continued goal-scoring prowess:

1. High-danger goals, shots on goal

All four of Draisaitl’s goals in the 2025 Cup Final have been from high-danger areas after he was held to three high-danger goals over his first 16 games of the postseason. Draisaitl ranked third in the NHL in high-danger goals during the regular season (25) behind Tampa Bay Lightning forwards Brayden Point (28) and Jake Guentzel (26).

This postseason, Draisaitl is among the League leaders in high-danger goals (seven; third), high-danger shots on goal (19; tied for eighth) and midrange shots on goal (13; 93rd percentile). Since the start of the NHL's puck and player tracking era (2021-22), Draisaitl ranks fifth in high-danger goals (109) over the regular season and playoffs combined.

Draisaitl is second in the NHL in goals this postseason (11) behind Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett (14), who is tied with Draisaitl and Panthers wing Brad Marchand (four each) for the most goals in this series. Draisaitl had four shots on goal in Game 4, after being held without even a single attempt in Game 3.

2. Skating speed, distance

Like McDavid, Draisaitl has thrived in skating speed and distance, especially in the playoffs. He ranks in the 99th percentile in 20-plus mile per hour speed bursts (72; third in entire NHL) this postseason and 94th percentile in top skating speed (22.89 mph).

Draisaitl ranks fourth in the entire NHL in total miles skated (70.18) and third in even-strength skating distance (60.81 miles) and also ranks highly in power-play skating distance (9.17; eighth).

3. Goalie angle impact on “Projected Goal Rate”

NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. The Actual Goal Rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.1 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts.

Draisaitl, who has an average PGR of 9.68 percent this postseason (third in NHL behind Matthew Knies’ 12.75, Corey Perry’s 10.91) has six inferenced shot attempts with a PGR of at least 12.0 percent through the first four games of the Cup Final, tied Bennett for the most of any player in the series, and scored on three of them.

• PGR: 39.74 percent (goal; first period of Game 2)
• PGR: 39.19 percent (goal; first period of Game 1)
• PGR: 17.70 percent (goal; overtime of Game 1)

His overtime goal in Game 1 had a goalie angle of 36.24 degrees from the puck line at the time of Draisaitl’s shot release, a major factor in raising the PGR of the attempt. The average goalie angle on an inferenced shot attempt during the regular season was just below 13 degrees (12.82) and has a direct relationship with PGR (as the goalie angle increases, so does the PGR). Draisaitl led the NHL in average goalie angle against (24.05 degrees) this regular season, indicating his quick shot release and shooting position on the ice consistently catches opposing goalies off guard. Draisaitl’s frequent ice time with McDavid, who has four primary assists on Draisaitl goals this postseason, including two in the Cup Final, has also helped him take advantage of these situations.

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More EDGE stats on Draisaitl